If you know me already a bit, then you know that I hate to trade in the lower timeframes.
It's too stressful to me and too time consuming.
But if you just do the same ever day, you could become lazy.
Specially in this business you need to have a super sharp mind.
And this is how I sharpen my mind, putting myself in a uncomfortable situation.
Of course, if you still struggle with your trading, then you should not put more pressure on yourself.
But it makes sense to exercise and train your brain, if your Bread & Butter Money-Makers work for you already.
So here I am, going short CL (Original Link when I started to watch the market:
( https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL1!/AhvRN0N9-Scalping-Crude-Don-t-like-it-period/ ).
I decided to enter the trade after the break of the white shelf - thin white line.
A couple hourse later CL decided to test my nerves, piercing the little white support, but I could resist. It was by no means a break and not even a close below it.
Then the hour of power came and my entry was triggered with the close below the white shelf:
My stop was above the last Pivot High, the one outside the U-MLH:
It's quite a bit, but it's exactly what my stats tell me to do, so I do it, even if my stomach goes ouuuhhmmmm...
The target was at least the Centerline.
And this is probably the moment where you ask yourself: Why does he trade such a poor Risk/Reward?
Here's the reason:
So over the years I was meeting my inner trader, telling me, that I totally SUCK! trading high Risk/Reward trades, but I'm a master when it comes to trade R/R of 1:1, 1:2.
I have proven stats for myself that tell me what works for me and what's not.
But these are my one personal statistics that maybe not work for you...
In this case of the Crude Oil trade, I knew that my chances of success where over 90% that price will trade back to the Centerline, back to balance. So, trading a low Risk/Reward Ratio was absolutely fine for me.
Yesterday evening before the market close, I took partial profit.
This morning (20. April 2018 / 07:30 EU-Time) I checked the positions and price was barely just a couple ticks away from the Centerline, but had not progressed much more.
A thought came into my thinking:"Don't Be A Pig!"...
That meant, don't sacrifice your Squat just to win the fight for a latrine. §8-)
So I close my whole trade and made good money, being happy to followed my rules and my trading philosophy.
As always: "Learn To Earn".
Here's your link to register for free to my ForkTrading BLUEPRINT.
It's a working analysis method - in fact, the basics of it - but even the basics work fantastic as you can see.
Have a great learning experience and please drop me your comment - TNX!
The white Fork shows that price fell back to balance.
The orange Fork reveilles where the Pull-Back balance is.
If price is closing below the orange Centerline, then chances are very high that we see price at the white Centerline very soon.
Although I like the company very much, I know what my job in trading is...it's a clear Short to me.
This is one of the classics.
Close outside the L-MLH and a Test/Retest.
Since we only can play the probabilities, this is mechanical trade I'l do whenever it shows up.
Yes, it's a counter trend trade, because the prevailing trend is up. But it's also a clear sign of weakness and price want's to travel to the WL1.
"For every action in our world, there is a equal and opposite reaction"
This axiom (hard and fast, unbudgeable rule) stems from Newton himself.
Applied to trading, we find that this rule also works on the charts.
Why do they work on the charts?
It's a hard and fast rule in our world we live and this rule applies to everything, period.
How can we take advantage in trading of this Action/Reaction rule?
By knowing how to apply it, which needs a thoroughly research - which I have learned and done by myself many years ago.
On the chart you can see how price is (re-)acting at the projected lines.
These lines are projected from the past, giving us a clue where price will react.
But just with plain reaction at the lines, how can we trade?
How can we know when to go long or short?
We don't know, and we never will know when to go long or short.
In fact, we not even have to know to make good profits!
What we can do is, create rules around these reaction lines.
Rules with good Money & Risk management.
Gues what?... I have done it already.
If you want take a sneak-peak behind the curtain, then I'l offer you a free BLUEPRINT on how to use the trading tools I use today for this method.
Subscribe to the ForkTrading BLUEPRINT and start to learn this simple, but powerful trading method, including videos, charts and learning material - all FREE!
I got a E-Mail from a stranger who "scold" me, why I don't post these trades much earlier.
He was really obset about it (...WTF?...) §8-)
So I wrote him back, very friendly, and explained that if he where taking my FREE ForkTrading BLUEPRINT Crash-Course, he would knew what happened next, after the first test of the Centerline.
However - here's a quick explanation video on GBP.USD for you.
And hey, if you're not a ForkTrading Group Member yet, subscribe right now.
You will get a lot of learning material and it took me a lot of work to create it.
So don't be lazy and join our group and learn to earn.
Here we are - stretched to the downside again.
I took profit on the L-MLH, trade finished.
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Let's compare and check, how the rules work in this Russel Chart:
Price missed to reach the "next line". We can expect a pullback farther then from where price came.
If the U-MLH/L-MLH is broken, price is likely to go to the next line, which is the Warning Line
Here Price is at the upper WL1 the upper Extreme = Price is extended, stretched. We can expect at least a pullback, or even a move to another extreme, the Lower-Medianline-Parallel (L-MLH).
Rule Nr. 1
Price moves back to balance, to the Centerline in over 80% of all occurrences.
If price breaks the CL or any other Line of the Pitchfork, then we can expect a Test/Retest.
Here we are with the naked truth, that we can trust the ForkTrading Rules.
If we know that we can lean on hard written rules, we are able to develop a serious trading method out of it. We can research the so beloved "Setups". And we don't have to fear stops anymore too!
What's next with the Russel?
We have the first Test of the Centerline.
As far as I see, there is no major Swing broken, just pierced!
(...remember my Swing/Pivot rules? Watch the stair stepping blue lines below the pivots.
And if you don't know the rules by now, you should go back an learn them if you are already a Free ForkTrading Member (...if not, subscribe below...).
This means, that there ist no confirmation of a turn in trend, even if it seems that the markets are extremely extended up in these price levels here.
Because we can't predict the future, but act on facts, this is what I do:
1. don't let me fool to believe that the trend has turned to the south already. There is no confirmation so fahr, period! (It doesn't mean that it could be the case in the coming days and weeks either, but not now.)
2. If the market lose steam and pulls back a little, I expect a Re-Test of the Centerline.
3. If price moves above the Centerline, then this could be a tell that the Bulls are in control. I would expect another Test of the U-MLH!
So, I sit on my hands and wait until the market is telling me more information.
This is a sneak-peak into the rules and the world of the Pitchforks, and how great they work in step with the ruleset.
Ohh...please, could you do me a little favour?
...please share this place on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn etc., so others can profit and learn too from these resources! I think it's a little price you "pay" for what you get ;-) Thank you very much!
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Not went through the Free ForkTrading BLUEPRINT?
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As far as I can interpret the facts from the chart, I would say that there's a potential support now.
This blog post maybe sounds hard to you, but be sure that i's coming from my heart, because I really know what pain and frustrations many of you go through. P!
Metal helmet on?
OK, lets go...
Lately I was browsing through the ton of questions I get from people.
I found out, that so many are asking me, how much money I make.
Either direct in to my face, or by squirming around with the question.
Here's the answer: FUTILE!
This question comes from those traders, who are looking very hard for a insurance for their one trading.
And they think, they can measure the quality of a strategy or mentor according to the money he makes.
Let me say this: I UNDERSTAND WHY YOU ARE ASKING THESE QUESTIONS...but...
...first of all, one must understand by what trading success is influenced, before you are looking for a way to insure hes one trading - if this is even possible. But let's find out, right here and now:
What influences ones success or failure in his trading:
...and there is much more!
But let's just stick with this tiny list.
Let's assume, I tell you that I make something between 30K to 60K in trading per year (which are complete arbitrary numbers):
Do you feel better and more confident now in your trading?
Do you think your PNL will be positive at the end of the year?
Do you think that I'm now a really good enough mentor for you?
...it's futile, 100% futile because:
a) you don't know if I tell you the truth, even if I show you 20 statements, because they could be faked.
b) you have no clue, how much money I put into my trading to make this amount of money
c) what about my soft facts? Do you think you can handle the trades with the same emotions like me? What if you are much better in this part of trading? What if you first have to develop these soft facts to withstand emotional torture?
d) you don't trade the exact same way, even if you copy my strategy 100%. Somewhere in the process we will deviate from our personal trading style, even if we both trade the same strategy, period!
e) ...luck, probability, time to trade, applying the strategy...all these too are applied most of the time very different from one trader to another.
Let me tell you this:
If you want to make money in trading, you have to take the little pain, going through a process:
- reading and learning
- applying what you have learned
- improve (take your notes and screenshots you make from every trade and reflect)
- applying the new learned information again
...back and forth, until you get it.
From there on, you have developed your one style, maybe with my high probability strategy, that's OK.
But even then - your results will differ from my results in every single trade!
You are looking for a insurance for you money.
You are afraid not get scammed.
I understand all of these reasons, but there is absolute nothing that can shelter you, but your one experience and your one prove - Learn To Earn.
Everyone who seduce you with "sure gains" is a fraudster, period!
Now you have three choices:
1. work - work with fun and be a part of the ForkTradingGroup and develop your one insurance, by learning and going through your process. Don't worry, we are here for you to guide and help you.
2. Give up trading and look fore something you have more trust in. Why not go and sell Burgers or Crépes or HotDogs etc.? If you have more fun doing this, start to plan your business right now.
3. Continue to look for a holy grale - and if you found it, please, PLEASE DONT LET ME KNOW!
This blog post is not meant to daunt you, but to give some brainfood...
Learn to earn...my best wishes are with you, which way ever you go from here.
Very nice how price reacting at the Fork lines.
The red resistance line must be broken first, not just pierced.
The target is at least the Centerline.
Let's observe together how this develops.
...and here's what happened after the analysis.
Remember that it is really important to learn, not just to trade.