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Come with me and analyse the chart step by step.
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The white Fork describes the context and where price potentially can pullback to. As we see, price reached the Centerline two times. Now, the third time it failed!
The yellow steep Fork describes the current flow, which looks like it is to the upside. BUT: watch, price is outside the L-MLH. Even worse, price tested the L-MLH a couple times now, but could not push through into the Fork again.
The Orange Modified-Shiff Fork describes the Pendulum-Swing. The U-MLH got breached, but price fell back into the Fork again. Usually if price falls into a Fork again, there is a very high chance that price will reach the Centerline!
The red Mini-Trendline got broke too...price is loosing it's traction to the upside.
All this talks for a coming Pendulum-Swing to the downside.
The only part that makes me go ummmhhh.... is the coil (white sidways action). Of course, the trading above it could just be a fake and all the Bulls get washed when the party is over and the coil gets killed on the potential down thrust.
However, it looks to me that this party finds it's end soon...
Just for chuckles, let's see what kind of a RIsk/Reward we had, if we where to enter short right now and we base our target ner the Centerline: 1:4 seems not too bad for my gusto.
Maybe I join the chute and have fun...
BTW: ...my new Bread & Butter Strategy course is coming soon. So take the time and get the ForkTrading BLUEPRINT for free, so you can follow-up on the new course - Dont Miss This One! §8-)
Coments currenty don't work - My Web Hoster Is Hunting The Bug...
The modified Shiff-Fork describes price very nice.
We see how price find's it's way back to balance, below from the L-MLH.
From the balance, the Centerline, price got rejected declined in a natural fashion into the prior Buy-Zone again, where we see confluence with the L-MLH, the lower extreme.
The last Mile looks like price got pressured down. And as the ForkTrading members know, pressure lines often get broken to the opposite side.
A rise up to the Centerline, or even up to the U-MLH seems likely to me.
Let's find out if it holds true.
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OK, I have to admit, it's what I call a "Greedy Pig" Trade.
I woke up this morning and saw the following:
- Fractal detected
- Down Trend
- Flow Is Down
- L-MLH BRK 0.13%
- Test L-MLH
- Entry On BRK 0.13%
- PTG: Partial@CL
- Rest: L-MLH / Trail
- Initial bad RR
- Greedy Pig <--- Me
I know what I'm doing - although I don't recommend it for you, especially if you are a Beginner-Forker.
So, let's see how this plays out.
Happy Hump Day
WOW - That was quick.
Got slaughtered before PM §8-)
Well, as I said, I knew the risk and I was impatient.
Again - don't do this in your one trading....
Look how nice price found support at the U-MLH.
With a stop below the last low, I take this Puppy long.
My target is the WL/CL confluence.
Update 18. Mai 2018 - Trade Closed
If you where reading my follow-up at TradingView.com, then you saw that we changed the standard Fork to the Modified-Shiff Fork, because of the steepness and the close outside the Fork.
Here you see how the market went up to the WL1 / CL respectively.
Done & Next...at least for me ;-)
If you want to go further, then trail it up to the U-MLH, but make sure to get out there. It's the zone where the Market is way over stretched.
As you can see, there's not much one need to draw, if he knows about the law of Action/Reaction and how to apply it without any modification or "tuning".
(IMO, the party seems to be over soon in the S&P)
Here are two different charts to study for you.
Both describe the market with the same principal, but in different ways and...
...they lead to the same point.
Is it by accident?
To find out, just use this technique and start to work - make your hands dirty ;-)
If you really dig deep into the Rabbit hole, then prepare yourself fore some creepy experiences in the sense of how Chart Analysis can change your trading ...
I highly recommend this article I wrote about Action/Reaction:
Find out more about Action/Reaction here:
...I think it is.
Every commodity has it's price. But only the one that Humans are giving it.
Why has Gold failed so many times to make new highs? Why did the Bank of Canada sold (most or now all?) its Gold in 2016?
Yes, I know, we don't trade on fundamentals, but pure price and Action/Reaction. However, sometimes fundamental facts have their merit.
Away from the fundamentals and on to the real "meat":
The white up sloping Fork projects the most probable path of price. Even the Centerline was hit a couple times, without any clear indication to close or even stay above the balance. Instead price dropped, gone sideways and then it happened...the L-MLH (Lower-Medianline-Parallel) was broken.
A simple break by itself is no intention to proceed the journey to the South. But when the L-MLH was tested a couple times, then the time is ripe to bring the wounded booty down to the ground.
Like a predator is hunting as economically as possible, saving energy and looking for signs for high probability success, we as Forkers are sitting patient...until the time has come, which is now.
Real Forkers are now short this market and stalk the booty until it's out of energy and ready for the final hit...
Let's have a feast at the Centerline...
At the WL1, price is clearly extended and I look for a Trade up to the L-MLH at least.
(if you don't know what L-MLH means, it's the Lower-Medianline-Parallel - checkout my free course).
Another fact that I want to bring to your attention is, that price reacts very nice at the lines of the Fork - even with all the GAPS in between...
I wish you all a happy and profitable new week.
Update 30. May 2018
Because there are only 16 days left for my options, I close this position for a tiny $45 profit/ lot.
...for a blow up to the upside?
Here are the facts:
Need more BTC! §8-)
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