When you have a good live, a good day or just a good moment, then you should give back from time to time...
Think about it.
This is a clear sign that price has spent enough time in the South and is planning it's journey back to the North.
Until price leaves the track, which would be the case after closing below the yellow dotted Sliding Parallel (SL), the path of price is clearly to the upside. Next Station: Centerline City ;-)
Happy Profitable Week Folks. Emilio
If you know me already a bit, then you know that I hate to trade in the lower timeframes.
It's too stressful to me and too time consuming.
But if you just do the same ever day, you could become lazy.
Specially in this business you need to have a super sharp mind.
And this is how I sharpen my mind, putting myself in a uncomfortable situation.
Of course, if you still struggle with your trading, then you should not put more pressure on yourself.
But it makes sense to exercise and train your brain, if your Bread & Butter Money-Makers work for you already.
So here I am, going short CL (Original Link when I started to watch the market:
( https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL1!/AhvRN0N9-Scalping-Crude-Don-t-like-it-period/ ).
I decided to enter the trade after the break of the white shelf - thin white line.
A couple hourse later CL decided to test my nerves, piercing the little white support, but I could resist. It was by no means a break and not even a close below it.
Then the hour of power came and my entry was triggered with the close below the white shelf:
My stop was above the last Pivot High, the one outside the U-MLH:
It's quite a bit, but it's exactly what my stats tell me to do, so I do it, even if my stomach goes ouuuhhmmmm...
The target was at least the Centerline.
And this is probably the moment where you ask yourself: Why does he trade such a poor Risk/Reward?
Here's the reason:
So over the years I was meeting my inner trader, telling me, that I totally SUCK! trading high Risk/Reward trades, but I'm a master when it comes to trade R/R of 1:1, 1:2.
I have proven stats for myself that tell me what works for me and what's not.
But these are my one personal statistics that maybe not work for you...
In this case of the Crude Oil trade, I knew that my chances of success where over 90% that price will trade back to the Centerline, back to balance. So, trading a low Risk/Reward Ratio was absolutely fine for me.
Yesterday evening before the market close, I took partial profit.
This morning (20. April 2018 / 07:30 EU-Time) I checked the positions and price was barely just a couple ticks away from the Centerline, but had not progressed much more.
A thought came into my thinking:"Don't Be A Pig!"...
That meant, don't sacrifice your Squat just to win the fight for a latrine. §8-)
So I close my whole trade and made good money, being happy to followed my rules and my trading philosophy.
As always: "Learn To Earn".
Here's your link to register for free to my ForkTrading BLUEPRINT.
It's a working analysis method - in fact, the basics of it - but even the basics work fantastic as you can see.
Have a great learning experience and please drop me your comment - TNX!
The white Fork shows that price fell back to balance.
The orange Fork reveilles where the Pull-Back balance is.
If price is closing below the orange Centerline, then chances are very high that we see price at the white Centerline very soon.
Although I like the company very much, I know what my job in trading is...it's a clear Short to me.
23-04-2018 Update - Daily Chart
This is one of the classics.
Close outside the L-MLH and a Test/Retest.
Since we only can play the probabilities, this is mechanical trade I'l do whenever it shows up.
Yes, it's a counter trend trade, because the prevailing trend is up. But it's also a clear sign of weakness and price want's to travel to the WL1.