OK, I have to admit, it's what I call a "Greedy Pig" Trade.
I woke up this morning and saw the following:
- Fractal detected
- Down Trend
- Flow Is Down
- L-MLH BRK 0.13%
- Test L-MLH
- Entry On BRK 0.13%
- PTG: Partial@CL
- Rest: L-MLH / Trail
- Initial bad RR
- Greedy Pig <--- Me
I know what I'm doing - although I don't recommend it for you, especially if you are a Beginner-Forker.
So, let's see how this plays out.
Happy Hump Day
WOW - That was quick.
Got slaughtered before PM §8-)
Well, as I said, I knew the risk and I was impatient.
Again - don't do this in your one trading....
Look how nice price found support at the U-MLH.
With a stop below the last low, I take this Puppy long.
My target is the WL/CL confluence.
Update 18. Mai 2018 - Trade Closed
If you where reading my follow-up at TradingView.com, then you saw that we changed the standard Fork to the Modified-Shiff Fork, because of the steepness and the close outside the Fork.
Here you see how the market went up to the WL1 / CL respectively.
Done & Next...at least for me ;-)
If you want to go further, then trail it up to the U-MLH, but make sure to get out there. It's the zone where the Market is way over stretched.
As you can see, there's not much one need to draw, if he knows about the law of Action/Reaction and how to apply it without any modification or "tuning".
(IMO, the party seems to be over soon in the S&P)
Here are two different charts to study for you.
Both describe the market with the same principal, but in different ways and...
...they lead to the same point.
Is it by accident?
To find out, just use this technique and start to work - make your hands dirty ;-)
If you really dig deep into the Rabbit hole, then prepare yourself fore some creepy experiences in the sense of how Chart Analysis can change your trading ...
I highly recommend this article I wrote about Action/Reaction:
Find out more about Action/Reaction here:
...I think it is.
Every commodity has it's price. But only the one that Humans are giving it.
Why has Gold failed so many times to make new highs? Why did the Bank of Canada sold (most or now all?) its Gold in 2016?
Yes, I know, we don't trade on fundamentals, but pure price and Action/Reaction. However, sometimes fundamental facts have their merit.
Away from the fundamentals and on to the real "meat":
The white up sloping Fork projects the most probable path of price. Even the Centerline was hit a couple times, without any clear indication to close or even stay above the balance. Instead price dropped, gone sideways and then it happened...the L-MLH (Lower-Medianline-Parallel) was broken.
A simple break by itself is no intention to proceed the journey to the South. But when the L-MLH was tested a couple times, then the time is ripe to bring the wounded booty down to the ground.
Like a predator is hunting as economically as possible, saving energy and looking for signs for high probability success, we as Forkers are sitting patient...until the time has come, which is now.
Real Forkers are now short this market and stalk the booty until it's out of energy and ready for the final hit...
Let's have a feast at the Centerline...
At the WL1, price is clearly extended and I look for a Trade up to the L-MLH at least.
(if you don't know what L-MLH means, it's the Lower-Medianline-Parallel - checkout my free course).
Another fact that I want to bring to your attention is, that price reacts very nice at the lines of the Fork - even with all the GAPS in between...
I wish you all a happy and profitable new week.
...for a blow up to the upside?
Here are the facts:
Need more BTC! §8-)
...subscribe for your free ForkTrading BLUEPRINT on the Homepage!
When you have a good live, a good day or just a good moment, then you should give back from time to time...
Think about it.
This is a clear sign that price has spent enough time in the South and is planning it's journey back to the North.
Until price leaves the track, which would be the case after closing below the yellow dotted Sliding Parallel (SL), the path of price is clearly to the upside. Next Station: Centerline City ;-)
Happy Profitable Week Folks. Emilio
If you know me already a bit, then you know that I hate to trade in the lower timeframes.
It's too stressful to me and too time consuming.
But if you just do the same ever day, you could become lazy.
Specially in this business you need to have a super sharp mind.
And this is how I sharpen my mind, putting myself in a uncomfortable situation.
Of course, if you still struggle with your trading, then you should not put more pressure on yourself.
But it makes sense to exercise and train your brain, if your Bread & Butter Money-Makers work for you already.
So here I am, going short CL (Original Link when I started to watch the market:
( https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL1!/AhvRN0N9-Scalping-Crude-Don-t-like-it-period/ ).
I decided to enter the trade after the break of the white shelf - thin white line.
A couple hourse later CL decided to test my nerves, piercing the little white support, but I could resist. It was by no means a break and not even a close below it.
Then the hour of power came and my entry was triggered with the close below the white shelf:
My stop was above the last Pivot High, the one outside the U-MLH:
It's quite a bit, but it's exactly what my stats tell me to do, so I do it, even if my stomach goes ouuuhhmmmm...
The target was at least the Centerline.
And this is probably the moment where you ask yourself: Why does he trade such a poor Risk/Reward?
Here's the reason:
So over the years I was meeting my inner trader, telling me, that I totally SUCK! trading high Risk/Reward trades, but I'm a master when it comes to trade R/R of 1:1, 1:2.
I have proven stats for myself that tell me what works for me and what's not.
But these are my one personal statistics that maybe not work for you...
In this case of the Crude Oil trade, I knew that my chances of success where over 90% that price will trade back to the Centerline, back to balance. So, trading a low Risk/Reward Ratio was absolutely fine for me.
Yesterday evening before the market close, I took partial profit.
This morning (20. April 2018 / 07:30 EU-Time) I checked the positions and price was barely just a couple ticks away from the Centerline, but had not progressed much more.
A thought came into my thinking:"Don't Be A Pig!"...
That meant, don't sacrifice your Squat just to win the fight for a latrine. §8-)
So I close my whole trade and made good money, being happy to followed my rules and my trading philosophy.
As always: "Learn To Earn".
Here's your link to register for free to my ForkTrading BLUEPRINT.
It's a working analysis method - in fact, the basics of it - but even the basics work fantastic as you can see.
Have a great learning experience and please drop me your comment - TNX!
The white Fork shows that price fell back to balance.
The orange Fork reveilles where the Pull-Back balance is.
If price is closing below the orange Centerline, then chances are very high that we see price at the white Centerline very soon.
Although I like the company very much, I know what my job in trading is...it's a clear Short to me.
23-04-2018 Update - Daily Chart