This post is probably the most important entry in this section, so pay close attention!
OK, maybe I'm a little bit exaggerated but this so important, that I need your attention.
I got a e-mail from a student, a couple minutes after entering the FTBP.
He really must have rushed through the Rules - but however, here's what he write to me:
"i am sure you may have it in further training course , but the entry and exit is not clear as chart is historical and moves are harmonics . so the explanation is how it works which kind of market has trend , but identify the trend entry or reversal entry is key ."
First an foremost I want to say officially THANK YOU to him, and that I really appreciate his comment and the thought he brought up. He is using his brain and asks critical questions.
I understand that he asks for the "Setup" immediately, instead of first learning the basics. I understand 100% what he wants and what is going on in his mind - I was the same many many years ago.
Yes, I too was always on the hunt of "THE" trading system that shall bring me consistent money.
And I spent money - a ton of money, just to realise that it's absolutely NOT about a setup or the exact entry.
Here is my answer I wrote him:
I'm with you, and not ;-)
Lat me explain:
I'm with you IF you trade the underlying directly.
Then it is more vital to identify the turn - but not even "very" important.
Because it depends on the strategy and how you manage a trade according to risk/money management. You can make money simply by throwing a dice on which day in a market you go long or short, and manage the outcome by risk/money management.
A german guy did it once - he posted 1 week in advance the entry on the BUND Future and the outcome was astonishing!
But simply put - it's really not the most efficient trading method and risk management.
But instead of trading the UL, there's a much simpler way, so you don't have to find the exact turn/reversal!
If you DONT trade the underlying, but instead Options, and O.- strategies respectively, then you have much more flexibility in time "buffer" for the stop.
For example, if you get a signal from the Forks that the market is stretched, then you could initiate a RiskReversal, a Debit Spread or even a simple Credit Spread.
The O. strategy needs to fit the actual market environment (like Volatility, IV and the greeks of the Options you choose).
So, this essentially is what i will teach to those who are firm with the basics of the Fork and willing to learn, instead of jumping to the "setup" directly - which is THE prove for failure, period!
It's one of the biggest mistakes you can make as a trader if you focus too hard on the turn, the setup and the entry. Don't fall in this trap, or get yourself out of it if you feel you are already in it...
Start by simply going through the ForkTrading BLUEPRINT a couple times.
Then later, after about 1 week of subscription you will be granted access to the Free ForkTradingGroup (FTG).
Take your time - it's a process...
Have a sunny day
Again - I thank him for this thought so we can learn now from it.
It's one of the biggest and most upcoming problems that a beginning or unsuccessful trader faces.
When I was in these shoes I wanted become profitable and I lost money already, much money.
I as even angry, because I payed money for setups, strategies or systems that in reality are not worth a dime.
But probably the most of us where going through the exact same process...became addicted to the trading world....learned a bit....lost money....bought a system or setup....lost money....did this a couple times and came to the conclusion that there we must "LEARN TO EARN".
And this takes time!
In fact it's not the money that we spend, that is most valuable.
It's the time we spend with learning, practicing and doing the work which we don't like the most in trading...for example thinking and developing a strategy, plans, tools, backtest and create stats to lean on when things go bad, and so forth.
This is what I mean by "Learn To Earn" - getting our hands very, very dirty!
But in the end, there is maybe something waiting for us - It's like a ATM where we can grab money from when ever we need some - it's called "Market" and we can trade this market with confidence, because we DID the work and we WHERE going through the process of developing the needed skills.
What do you think, could this be worth the time for you too, instead of jumping directly to the setup?
"I Learn To Earn"
...repeat it now, in the morning when you wake up, on the latrine, when you wait for the bus, bevor you fall asleep...
Especially If you still looking for a holy grail, be it in trading or in your live - THIS IS IT!
Analysis of FSLR in depth.
These are the most important topics in this video:
Please leave me your comment below the video if you like.
On this chart you can see how the white Fork catches the extremes of the market.
After shooting above the U-MLH, price did not retrace (missing test/retest) and was going straight up.
But there's a miss...what did price missed?
Below you see a "Magic" line.
Can you find out where this line is comming from?
Drop me comments §8-)
Here's the members questions:
"So B should be first high so far in the upswing or need to constantly adjust to make sure B is the highest high? Same for C?"
Because there is much more then a simple answer in the question, I made a video with the details: